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| Recovery of new shipbuilding market; ship prices continue to rise in the next three years |
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The recovery of ship operating income will promote the recovery of new shipbuilding activities, while the increase of shipyard costs and the continuous squeeze of production capacity are pushing up the price of new shipbuilding.
Stuart nicoll, an analyst at consulting firm maritime strategies international ( MSI ), said recently that the freight rate income of some major shipping departments is expected to increase in the next four years, so new shipbuilding activities will also grow accordingly. The increase in revenue was driven by the growth in demand for goods ( from trade growth ) and the slowdown in fleet growth.
Msi predicts that fleet growth in major shipping areas will slow down in the next five years, which will help improve supply-demand balance in many areas. The slowdown in fleet growth is due to a decline in delivery, which will inevitably lead to a decline in delivery in 2016 and 2017. In addition, the increasingly stringent regulatory environment is also expected to bring about a significant increase in the amount of dismantling.
Msi pointed out that the growth of new shipbuilding activities will promote the increase of ship prices in the next three years. What is clear is that the workload index that can be met by the shipyard's hand-held orders will drop to the lowest level in 2017, and the prospect will be improved rapidly in the next two years. In addition to the increase in hand-held orders, the continuous reduction in shipbuilding capacity will also help to improve this indicator. With the delivery of some shipyards' final hand-held orders, shipbuilding capacity will be further reduced.
Msi found that the cost of shipyards has expanded rapidly in the past two years and has further increased this year. it is expected to remain basically stable in 2021. These factors make new shipbuilding begin to rebound in 2018 and accelerate its growth in 2019. the price of new shipbuilding is expected to reach a new high by 2021. The price of most ship types will reach or even exceed the peak level in 2013.
In theory, the current low new shipbuilding price provides an excellent opportunity for shipowners to reach a deal before the expected revenue growth of multiple shipping sectors. Another factor driving investment in new shipbuilding is the revival of demand for environmentally-friendly ships in the high fuel price environment to come in 2020.
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